Lessons from York - Part Two: Deacquisition

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby. 

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and the reasons behind them.

Deacquisition

In part one I shared some of the positive signs of a changing hobby. We saw larger selections of newer vintage toy trains than in the past.  This suggested that another generation of collectors had entered the hobby.

Looking for a good reference book?
$10 at the York meet.

There were some negative signs as well. It appeared that another generation was leaving the hobby for good. The primary cause seemed to be simply old age.

The final sale
Last April I postulated that we were seeing the last remnants of collections coming onto the market. We had already seen toy trains of the prewar years flood the market. And then we saw the same with early postwar trains.

Life of a toy train collector
I think the lifecycle of a toy train collector is something like this. You build your collection over time, starting in late middle age. At some point, you build a place for your collection, either in the basement, above the garage, or in a dedicated structure (it does happen). The walls are lined with shelves so you can display your treasures. And there's a layout in the center of the room to run your best equipment.

This was an expensive book back in the day.
At the York meet, it was $10.

After retirement comes the need to move to a smaller home. The reason may be health-related, or having to live on a fixed income, or just not needing a home with multiple bedrooms anymore.

The smaller home has less space, and so the collection has to be thinned. You keep your best items and sell the rest. Perhaps the layout has to be dissembled (or replaced with a smaller one).

At some point, you may have to move an assisted living facility, or perhaps even share a room at a nursing home. At that point, the collection has to go. But there's probably room for a few books. And so you keep your library of reference books and train history books (or at least some of them).

In the final stage of life these, too, will need to go.

Even general history books like this
were going for just $10.

Books-a-thousands
At the April show, we saw a lot of books. But that was nothing compared to what we saw in October. There were stacks of books in virtually every aisle.

We saw a fair selection of reference books, such as Ron Hollander's "All Aboard." And we also saw some technical publications, such as Model Railroader's Train Cyclopedias. And there was even a substantial amount of general-interest train coffee table books.

What we didn't see, though, were price guides. That's not surprising. There's practically no value in a an outdated price guide. I'm sure most of those were sent straight to the recycle center.

But there was plenty of everything else. And the standard price was $10 a volume. For some books, that was close to the original price. But for volumes that originally sold for $50, $75, or more, that was a little sad.

And while there were some real bargains to be had, what we didn't see were a lot of people buying. I'm curious to see if this sea of vintage publications washes back for the April meet. 

Need a coffee table book about trains?
Yours for $10 at the York meet.

Lessons from York - Part One: Diversity

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby. 

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and the reasons behind them.

Diversity

When TCA started back in the 1950s, the founders were interested in the toy trains of their youth. And that youth was ca. 1915-1928. As the organization aged, newer members were also interested in the toys of their youth. And as the demographics changed, so did collecting interests. And so did the mix of toy trains available at shows, such as the York meet.

The moving window of nostalgia
For a while, interest seemed to settle in the immediate pre- and postwar years. That included classic Lionel 0 gauge and American Flyer S gauge. Increasingly, though, other gauges have crept into the show.

Most folks join the organization in their late middle age (or older).  If you're 65 now, then your Golden Age of trains would be the from the mid-1960s. Bigger-sized trains were on their way out. H0 was on the rise. So these collectors are interested in vintage H0. And we saw many tables offering a variety of H0 sets and unassembled kits from the late 1950s through the late 1960s.

If you're in your mid-50s, then your Golden Age would be the early 1970s. That marks the appearance of N-gauge trains, with Aurora's Postage Stamp Train sets. We also saw an increased presence of N-scale rolling stock -- especially from the 1970s and 1980s.

Limited real estate for growing categories
The York train meet has a finite number of tables. Every table stocked with N-scale, H0 scale, or even S gauge American Flyer is one less table full of vintage Lionel trains. For years, the statement "I collect toy trains" was equivalent to "I collect Lionel trains." No longer.

The shifting product mixes indicate (at least to me) a shift in collector interest. And that type of shift only occurs when new collectors replace older ones.

It's a reality I've heard about from collectors in other fields. The hobby continues to mature. The real question is whether it will continue to grow. The collecting window is moving past the era when trains under the tree was a holiday tradition.

The good old days are different now
Most older collectors point to the first Lionel train they (or their family) received at Christmas as their entry into the hobby. Those trains were usually packed away and only brought out with the rest of the holiday decorations.

H0 and N scale collectors don't normally have that same association. Their first train sets may or may not have arrived at Christmas. But normally their layouts remained set up year-round. So the vintage trains they seek may have pleasant childhood associations, but probably not as strong as a childhood Christmas memory.

How will that different perception affect the hobby? I'm not sure. We'll just have to revisit the train show in April and see.

 Next: Deacquisition

Lessons from York - What We Saw: Half and Half

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby. 

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and the reasons behind them.

Half Empty or Half Full?

This time around we saw both decline and growth -- in very different ways.

Aging out of the hobby

Toy train collecting (along with many other collecting hobbies) seems to appeal to older generations. Millennials don't seem to share the passion for collecting physical objects. The first generation of train collectors is gone. The second is rapidly aging, and the third may well be the last -- or at least the last in any significant numbers.

This time we saw more empty tables than before. Each one represents a seller who chose not to return -- and not enough interest for a new seller to take over the table. Lionel LCC, and Atlas Model Trains, two of the major manufacturers in the hobby did not attend this time.

Why you shouldn't invest in a hobby

What's in this box? I have no idea. This item has never been removed
from its original packaging. It may still be in mint condition after
all these years, but it probably hasn't increased in value.

What we saw in abundance were high-end collectible locomotives. Lionel, MTH, Weaver (965-2015), and K-Line (1975-2005) issued limited-run finely-detailed O-gauge locomotives for many years. Such locomotives originally had four-figure price tags.

They came in deluxe packages, and for the most part, were stored in them. Many people didn't buy these models to run on layouts. These were investments in the future. Beautifully detailed models remained wrapped in plastic, cradled in styrofoam spacers inside of thick glossy cardboard boxes -- just as they were shipped from the factory.

Buyers knew that the value of these limited-edition models would only go up -- especially if the items remained in mint condition.

But the pool of potential buyers is slowly evaporating -- and so is the demand for these objects. We've always seen some of these collectible locos at the shows. This time I saw tables piled high with them. I think owners were anxious to realize whatever they could before demand dropped even further.

An interesting change in interest

Let's hope the folks interested in vintage H0 are younger than this guy.l

What seemed to be on the rise was interest in smaller scales -- particularly H0. H0 scale (Half 0) is the scale most people are familiar with. This show we saw many vintage pieces on tables in every hall.

Most of the models seem to come from the early 1950s and 60s. There were brass locomotives (from Varney and others). Vintage Athearn "blue box" kits and AHM model kits were plentiful. Unassembled kits commanded higher prices. Ready-to-run Tycho and Bachmann trains were available, too (no broken plastic parts, please).

There was also an event held at the meet to discuss having a separate hall open at the next York show exclusively devoted to H0 sellers.

Extinction or evolution?

When I first attended the York shows with Dad,  H0 trains were a rarity. No longer. Interest in the large scale trains that first ran under Christmas trees seems to be literally dying out. But is there perhaps a newer generation that is interested in what came after -- H0?

I'd like to think so.

The October 2019 meet should be quite interesting.

Lessons from York - We Saw It All (sort of)

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby. 

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them

Since I started writing about this show in 2008, we've seen various trends cycle through the hobby. For the most part, toy collectors try to recapture their youth. So that means either replacing what they had or getting those items that Santa never brought. When Dad first joined the Train Collectors Association in the early 1970s, most of the membership was interested in toy trains of the 1910-1920s.

Over time, that focus shifted to those of the 1930s and pre-WWII. Then post-war trains increased in demand, and finally the trains of my youth -- the mid-1960s. As I've mentioned in other posts about this, time has marched on, and later eras are gaining in popularity.

Gauging the demand

But the focus has remained primarily on either standard gauge trains (popular through the early 1930s), or 0-gauge trains (slightly smaller, and popular from the 1930s-onward). S-gauge (smaller still), American Flyer's post-war choice was always a distant third. But the smaller post-war gauges -- H0, N, and Z -- weren't to be found at the show.


That's because most of the people using those gauges were considered modelers as opposed to toy train collectors.

 Off the shelf and onto the layout

With the inevitable demographic shift in the hobby, there's also been a change in focus. Lionel (or American Flyer) trains at Christmas ceased being a thing in the late 1960s. Smaller H0 and N scale trains replaced them. And increasingly, year-round layouts became the norm.

So current TCA members are more likely to be interested in running trains, rather than having them sit on shelves (as I discussed in 2014). And vintage H0 and N scale trains started to show up at the York meet.

True equilibrium?

So what did we see this show? Unlike previous shows, there wasn't one particular thing (or category of thing) that stood out. Formerly under-represented gauges were there in abundance -- American Flyer S gauge, early H0 and N scale sets of the 1960s and so on.

There were lots of examples of late pre-war trains, but nothing much earlier than 1932. Lots of vintage Lionel, but plenty from later years as well.

The hardware chain Menards has entered the toy train market in a big way.
Their products were not only on sale at their booth but at several others
throughout the halls.  

It was easy to find something to fit whatever scale layout you happened to have. But there was something missing, too.

No standouts

As mentioned, the really old pieces weren't there -- but then again, neither were their primary buyers. Mainstays like the Lionel/MPC Coke Set were missing (I only saw one this time). Ditto Industrial Rail rolling stock. While there was some of everything, there wasn't much that was very remarkable -- or that I hadn't seen many times before.

I've never seen this Industrial Rail tank car at the York meet.
This time, I didn't see any Industrial Rail tank cars at all. 

Are the (relatively) younger collectors holding on to what they have, and only releasing the less interesting (and valuable) items back into the market? Hard to say. We'll see what happen in the spring.

Lessons from York - We See Change

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby.

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them

From collector to operator

In Part 1 I shared some examples of a hobby in flux. The first three generations of toy train collectors are selling more than their buying. There is a fourth generation, though. But this middle-aged group is made up of operators rather than collectors.

Yes, they're interested in the larger gauge trains that were the mainstay of Lionel and American Flyer.  But they prefer to run trains on a layout rather than display them on shelves.

Trains made by Lionel, MTH, Atlas, Bachmann, and others for today's market are much more reliable that fragile and finicky vintage equipment that's a half-century old.

And that change was readily apparent at the meet.

Code Orange

The York meet had six dealer halls, designated by color. Four were for members who sell vintage toys (that being a loose definition). Two -- the Orange and Purple Halls -- were reserved for manufacturers of new products.

In these two halls were the latest offerings from Lionel, MTH, et al. There were also plenty of offerings from smaller companies that specialize in operating layout accessories; scenery, benchwork, electronics; structures, etc.

 The Lionel booth in the Orange Hall. It didn't look like this in
the members-only halls.

The Orange and Purple Halls were packed (at least while we were there). TCA allowed the general public into these two halls during the weekend. They did so at the last meet, and it was successful enough to continue this time as well.

Let's make a deal!

By contrast, the members-only halls weren't nearly as busy. These halls had the train items of interest primarily to the first three generations of collectors. There were many empty tables in these halls.

In the past, I had run across vendors who were anxious to close the deal. If I stopped to look at something, the table holder would appear at my side. He'd extoll the virtues of the object, and give me every reason why I should buy it right that minute!

And if I still resisted, he'd sometimes hint that the price was negotiable.

This time, it seemed that more of the vendors were like That Guy. Plus, I saw several signs at tables: "Prices negotiable" "Make me an offer" and so on.

I ran across a table with a pile of MPC Lionel boxes -- $10 each. Normally these would be in the $20-30 range, but not that day. The other half of the table was marked 50% off.

My two York purchases. I was really only interested in the red
Southern box car from Lionel MPC. But for $10 each, I couldn't resist.

To me, this suggests that the vendors also know the market is changing. And they want to get rid of their stock while there's still a window of opportunity to sell it. Because once the third generation stops buying, demand will plummet.

The October, 2018 meet should show if my impressions were correct.

One more thing

For the first time ever, I didn't see a Lionel Lifesavers Tank Car. Not one. It's been one of the few items I could count on spotting every meet. Have they all finally found homes?

 

Lessons from York - A Sea Change?

At one time, this volume was worth
over $100 - if you could find it. Now
it's readily available for $10.

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby.

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

What we saw

Most of what we saw at the April 2018 meet seemed to suggest that the market for vintage toy trains was still shrinking. If anything, the decline of the hobby (at least in its current form) seems to have accelerated.

One big library sale

Throughout the years a number of hobby-related reference books have been published. Because of their highly specialized subject matter, these books tended to have very short print runs. The better ones seldom came on the market. These were books collectors would use -- and use often.

Out of print for years, and now back on the market.

This meet we saw several tables with piles of reference books. These weren't factory remainders. Each table usually had just one copy of a particular title. They just had a lot of titles.

Why? Reference works are one of the last things to leave a collection. Even after the objects have been sold, you can still enjoy looking at their color photos in books.

I think these books are the final liquidation of collections. The subjects of most of these books were for trains made between 1900 and the Second World War. This was the focus of the first and second generation of collectors, those who grew up in the 1920s and 1930s.


The past few years I've seen evidence of these collectors downsizing. I believe this flood of books represents estate sales.

Lionel and American Flyer HO

In the 1950s, HO scale was hot. And both Lionel (O-gauge) and American Flyer (S-gauge) started to lose market share. Both companies tried to enter the HO market, and both were unsuccessful.

This did not end well. 

This did not end well, either.

Which made their HO trains somewhat rare, but not especially desirable. Except for a certain type of collector.

Most collectors have very specific interests, but there are some who want it all. For a hard-core Lionel post-war collector, that means not just having every O-gauge train set the company produced from 1948-1970.

It means owning every rail car, every accessory, and every esoteric item Lionel produced, like their chemistry sets, science kits -- and HO scale trains.

The current active generation of collectors grew up in the 1950s. These are the people who would acquire Lionel and American Flyer HO trains to fill out their collections.

But this is also the generation that's just entering retirement. And that means downsizing. The easiest way to begin downsizing a collection is to get rid of the outliers. And if you're a Lionel O-gauge or American Flyer S-gauge postwar collector, these companies' HO trains are just that.

A changing hobby

So if the last remnants of the old collectors is now hitting the market, and the current generation is starting to downsize, is this the end? I don't think so. I think, rather, these are signs of change -- as I'll explain in Part 2.

Lessons from York: What We Saw - Clearing out the clutter

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby.

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

There were three things that we saw in abundance this time, and I think they were there due to an aging market and shifting tastes.

Victims of the Aging Market

Toy collecting is a nostalgic endeavor, and most collectors focus on the objects of their youth. For the founding members of the TCA, that golden age would be the early 1920s. For the second generation to join, it was the late 1930s-early 1940s. For the third generation (of which I'm a part), it's postwar. 

And then there's a break. Because the third generation -- late Baby Boomers -- are really the last to grow up with toy trains. When the organization was founded, early trains commanded top dollar. That remained so during the second generation but started to decline by the third. And the slide continues.

1. Blue Comet and State Sets

Right before the Great Depression Lionel's top of the line train sets were indeed non plus ultra. The State set (each passenger car bore the name of a state) was a massive standard gauge (bigger than 0-gauge) train. Next in desirability was the Blue Comet.

These sets were made of high-quality metal, with detailed interiors, hinged doors and illumination. But in the early 1930s few families could afford such luxuries, and not many were sold.

An original 1930s Lionel standard gauge Blue Comet. Looks nice on a shelf.

For many, these sets remain the pinnacle of collecting. Even those who weren't especially interested in prewar trains would have a Blue Comet or a State Set if their pockets were deep enough.

At this show we saw an unusually high number of these vintage sets for sale. And while there weren't any real bargains, prices were $500-$1000 below average.

Why? The hobby is shifting from collectors who put trains on shelves to collectors who run trains on layouts. Reproduction Blue Comets and State Sets have hit the market. They cost a little less than the originals, run more reliably, and have modern operating features (like remote control).

The MTH 2014 reproduction. More features (like smoke and sound), and even more cars!

I think the vintage set we saw were the result of down-sizing and estate liquidations.

2. Postwar American Flyer

We noticed the abundance of American Flyer trains at the last show. This time there were even more tables offering postwar American Flyer trains. This Lionel competitor went out of business in 1967.

Original locomotives and rolling stock were scarce. But then in the early 1990s both Lionel and a new company S-Helper began offering new equipment. For the collector/operator, there was no longer a need for the vintage 1950s stuff.

This show I think we saw an acceleration of the change from collector to operator. There's less of a market for vintage Flyer, and plenty of demand for the new.

Transformers!

Last show we saw a lot of vintage ZW transformers. This time, we saw even more for sale.
For layout operators, the Lionel ZW transformer was the Holy Grail. It was the most powerful of Lionel's transformers, rated at 275 watts. It had independent controls for two trains, plus terminals to power accessories and lights.

That ZW (right) may have been powerful, but if you're one from the
late 1940s-early 1950s, it can get real hot real fast.

Lionel offered the ZW from 1948 to 1966. The first generation of collector/operators created a huge demand for refurbished ZWs. But as locomotives acquired on-board electronics, these became less satisfactory.

The Z4000 has more features, plus it's UL-rated.

In the late 1990s MTH offered their own line of transformers for modern 0-gauge locomotives. Their top-of-the-line Z-4000 transformer delivers 400 watts of power, has an internal cooling fan and is UL-rated. If your an operator, it just makes sense to replace that vintage ZW with something that's not only more powerful, but less likely to burn your house down.

What we didn't see

What we didn't see at York supports the theory that toy train operators are now driving the marketplace. What we didn't see are the very things most operators would want on their layouts:

1) Operating accessories, both pre- and postwar (such as coal loaders, beacon lights, etc.). They're right at home on the modern collector/operators' layouts.

2) Post 1990 locomotives and rolling stock from Lionel, Atlas, MTH, and Bachman. If you're running it, you're not going to sell it.

3) Modern reproductions from Weaver, Williams, MTH, and others. Those are the products that are pushing the vintage originals off the shelves and into the market place.

Lessons from York: What We Saw (Part 4) - American Flyer flown

Pre-war standard gauge AF trains.
We saw about the same amount we
normally do at this show.

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby.

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

In Part 1 I outlined the reasons for what I see as a major shift in the hobby. Basically, younger collectors seem more interested in operating their trains rather than simply displaying them. And that, I think, explains what we say this time at York -- the results of upgrading.

And it wasn't just limited to Lionel. We saw a lot of postwar American Flyer sets, locomotives, and rolling stock.

A little background

American Flyer trains, like those of Lionel, have a long history. The company started out in 1907 as a low-cost alternative to the higher-priced (and higher-quality) German imported toy trains. In the 1920s and 1930s, it competed directly with Lionel, offering trains in the same track gauge. A.C. Gilbert (or Erector Set fame) bought the company in 1937.

In 1937 A.C. Gilbert bought American Flyer. It seemed
to be a good match.

Toy train production ceased during World War II, and when it resumed, American Flyer had changed. Lionel continued to use O-gauge track, with a middle rail for the motor's electric pickup. American Flyer went with S-gauge track and used the same two-rail electrical system as the new H0 trains.

Flyer was never as successful as Lionel and went out of business in 1967. Children who received American Flyer trains in the 1950s grew up to be American Flyer collectors in the 1970s. It was a smaller group than Lionel collectors, but no less enthusiastic.

Limited resources

Unlike Lionel trains, which were in continual production even after the original company was bought out, American Flyer trains were not reintroduced into the market until the 1990s.

American Flyer, 1955. We saw plenty of these pieces, both in sets and for
individual sale.

So if you wanted to have an operating S-gauge layout, you were pretty much confined to vintage Flyer equipment

S-Helper Service helps

S-Helper Service and American Models jump-started the S-gauge operator's market in the early 1990s. These independent companies produced their own lines of rolling stock -- and eventually locomotives -- for S-gauge operators. S-Helper Service was purchased in 2013 by MTH, one of the largest toy train manufacturers in the US. American Models is still in business.

An example of MTH's S-gauge offerings. There's a greater variety
of road names and more realistic detail in these cars, compared
to vintage American Flyer rolling stock.

In the meantime, Lionel had purchased the assets to the old American Flyer line of products and started reissuing old trains. And they also began offering new products.

A sampling of Lionel's American Flyer-branded S-gauge trains. Like MTH,
Lionel offers models and road names never made by Gilbert

So what does that mean?

New products mean modern materials. New S-gauge cars roll more easily than older AF. The electronics in the locomotives offer remote control and more reliable operation. And there's a greater variety of road names and locomotive types, which lets the operator model the rail lines he wants, not just the few Flyer offered.

What did we see?

A LOT of American Flyer trains. But not from the prewar era. No, most of the American Flyer we saw was post-war. Train sets from the 1950s and 1960s, as well as individual locomotives, freight cars, and passenger cars. We didn't see a lot of postwar accessories, though.

Conclusion? As with their O-gauge brethren, S-gauge operators are trading in their aging Flyer pieces for newer, better-running equipment.

So what didn't we see? 

Across the board, anything that would be useful for modern toy train operators was in short supply. We didn't see operating accessories, buildings, crossing gates, billboard signs, etc.

The hobby has indeed changed.

Lessons from York: What We Saw (Part 3) - 6464 No More?

It appears such displays are moving from the
collector's home to the open market.

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby.

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

In Part 1 I outlined the reasons for what I see as a major shift in the hobby. Basically, younger collectors seem more interested in operating their trains rather than simply displaying them. And that, I think, explains what we say this time at York -- the results of upgrading.

And that upgrading, I think, has affected one of the mainstays of toy train collecting -- the Lionel 6464 series box car.

A little background

 From 1953 to 1969 Lionel Trains made a semi-scale box car that would become the standard for O-gauge railroading. It's known as the 6464 series, from the catalog number prefix all these box cars share. 29 different models were made. They were found in both high-end and entry-level sets. Some were available separately.

The Lionel 6464-300 from 1955-56. All the box cars in this series start with
6464. 

Stamp collecting for trains 

The 6464 box cars look good on layouts, but the primary reason these boxcars have retained their value over the years is their desirability as collectables. There are two different door types, four different body types, one of which has two different roof types. There are variations in the colors and applications of the graphics. There are factory samples, production prototypes, and factory errors.

Some of the box cars are readily available. Some, like the pastel-colored box car for the ill-fated Girl's Train are extremely rare. Just like stamp collectors seeking all the denominations of a single stamp design, train collectors have been filling their shelves with row after row of just 6464 box cars.

Taking it off the shelf

Vintage 6464 box cars have appealing graphics, and they look great in a train rolling along the track. But there are some disadvantages for the collector/operator.

1. The cars (especially the ones from the 1950s) are somewhat heavy, which limits the length 
2. The wheels don't turn that easily, increasing the strain on the locomotive. 
3. Only about 17 road names are represented. If you like the Norfolk & Western, for example, you're out of luck

But the 6464 box car remained an influence in the hobby long after they were discontinued. When MPC took over Lionel in the 1970s, they reused the molds to issue their own "collectible" line of 9700 box cars. While some of the graphics were interesting, the cheapening of the plastic and trucks made these less desirable.

An MPC/Lionel 9700 box car from the 1970. Compare it to the original 1950s
version above. It's easy to see that the plastic is cheaper, and the
graphics not quite as crisp.

As time went on, others (including the new Lionel) offered better quality box cars designed for the operator. The advantages over the classic 6464 cars are:

1. Modern 6464-like box cars are much lighter than the vintage cars 
2. Needle nose axles produce minimal friction, allowing the wheels to spin freely, reducing strain on the locomotive. 
3. Between all the manufacturers, hundreds of road names (both of current and defunct railroads) are available. If you like the Norfolk & Western, you can find examples of their box car liveries from the 1940s through the modern era.

6464 galore

So what did we see at York?

Tons of vintage 6464 box cars, including several examples of the Girl's Train model. If, as I believe, the trend is towards operation, then a wall of box cars has perhaps lost its appeal. Virtually all of the graphics of the original 6464 box cars are now available at much lower prices.

If you want a green NYC box car on your layout, why not use the Mikes' Train House version instead of the vintage Lionel one? It's less expensive, it runs better, and it looks just as good.

A 6464-900 Lionel NYC box car from the 1960s. 

The MTH version. 

We've always seen 6464 box cars at York, but never like this. There were tables with nothing but boxes stacked in four or five layers. And they were all there -- all 29 models.

Prices seemed a little soft, too -- about $40 to $120. Is this just the beginning?

Next: American Flyer's flown

Lessons from York: What We Saw (Part 2) - Powering Up

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby.

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

In Part 1 I outlined the reasons for what I see as a major shift in the hobby. Basically, younger collectors seem more interested in operating their trains rather than simply displaying them. And that, I think, explains what we say this time at York -- the results of upgrading.

If you have more than a 4' x 8' train layout
in the 1950s, you needed a Z transformer.

Power base

Most Lionel train sets of the 1950s and 60s came with small 35-watt transformer power packs. For the small oval or figure eight, the supplied track could make, that was enough power to keep the train moving.

When the owner of one of those sets built something bigger and more elaborate on a tabletop, though, 35 watts didn't cut it.

Bigger layout, bigger power demands

In order to overcome power drops in longer loops,  a 75-watt or higher-powered transformer was required. If one had two trains running, then a transformer with dual controls was a must. So the Z transformers (250 watts) and ZW transformers (275) became increasingly desirable. Lionel stopped making these powerhouses in 1969.

As more collectors turned to operating layouts, the demand for these transformers increased, as did their price. And they became scarce. Because once they were installed on a layout, they were out of circulation.

 The Lionel ZW transformer. At one time, this was the
ultimate power source for a large 0-gauge layout.

Power shift

This show we saw vintage Z and ZW transformers at virtually every table. Why?

I think the older transformers no longer cut it. Beginning in the late 90s, manufacturers installed printed circuits in their locomotives.

Some were for sound effects, which became increasingly realistic as digital sound technology advanced. Other circuits allowed for sophisticated remote control. The older transformers limited some of those functions.

So Lionel, MTH and other current manufacturers built new transformers for the new generation of trains. The MTH Z-4000, for example, provides 400 watts of power, and connectivity for newer remote control functions that didn't exist in the 1960s.

I think operators are trading up, and when they replace their Z or ZW with a Z-4000, the vintage transformer goes up for sale. There were many at this show, and prices were lower than I've ever seen them.

If you wanted to create a strictly vintage  layout, you were in luck. But most just passed them by without a glance.

The MTH Z-4000 transformer. While its form gives a nod to the vintage ZW, its electronics and functionality
is strictly 21st Century. 

Next: 6464 no more?

Lessons from York: What We Saw (Part 1) - Operators Welcome

Sure, it's great as a display piece -- but this 1925
American Flyer set probably doesn't have that many
spins around the layout left in it.

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby.

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

Changes in the wind

There's a major change happening in the toy train world, spurred in part by the changing age demographic. The older collector who accumulated vintage trains to proudly display on shelves is being replaced by a younger collector who prefers to run their trains.

Both are reconnecting with the toys of their youth (the essence of any type of toy collecting, I think). But there's a big difference. The toys of the first and second generation TCA member's youth date from the 1920s and 1930s -- and are too fragile to be run regularly without restoration work. But for the early collectors, that was fine. The toy was a trophy, not a, well, toy to be played with.

For current enthusiasts, the goal is not necessarily to get that toy train Santa never brought but to build that dream layout they never got around to. There are several professional layout building companies ready to serve this market. Classic Toy Trains, one of the premier magazines of the hobbies, features two or three operating layouts every issue and offers tips for DIY modelers.


The toy trains of these collectors date from the 1950s and 1960s and still run fairly well. But not as well as the current crop of locomotives. Digital electronic sounds and wireless commands are now standard equipment on Lionel trains. For the modern operator/collector, the reliability of the new products has resulted (I believe) in a declining interest in older trains.

Out with the Old?

For the first time, the York train meet was open to the public. It was only open for a limited time, and only for the halls that dealers and manufacturers of new products were. The goal was to reverse the slow decline in membership by showing potential members first-hand what TCA was all about.



As you can see from the above video, the public areas of the show were all about operating trains. In addition to layouts operated by Lionel, Mike's Train House, and Atlas displaying their latest offerings, there were smaller demo layouts for various accessories and products. There were also three large modular layouts for visitors to enjoy.

Unlike the example at the beginning of the post,  this reproduction of a classic Lionel 1930s train set runs just fine.
And MTH has built-in the modern electronic sound and control features that operators are looking for.

So what happens when people move from static to active displays of their collections? I think the answer can be found in what we saw (which I'll explain in Part 2) -- what we didn't see.

Lessons from York: What We Saw: Low-end unloading

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby. 

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

A question of imbalance

In the past, this series has talked about what we saw a lot of and what we saw almost none of -- but it was set against the context that of a wide variety of choices. So even if everyone had Madison cars (as they did in 2011), or Lionel diesels from the 1950s (2015), if you looked long enough, you could find an early 1900s Ives piece or a 1950s Kusan train. Big-ticket items such as a 1929 Lionel State Set wouldn't be on every table, but there would two or three (or a few more) scattered throughout the halls.

This time, though, the variety was missing. We saw a lot of two things, and only a smattering of anything else.

Price matters

With rare exceptions, for toy trains desirability pretty much follows original pricing. Top of the line train sets tends to remain the most desirable and command the highest prices. Mid-priced trains tend to be common in collections -- they were made in greater quantities than the high-end trains, and remain more affordable and therefore easy to acquire.

Low-end trains usually sold the best, and so were made in the largest quantities. Their lower quality, though, meant that they don't hold up as well as mid-level trains. Top tier sets, because of their expense, were usually handled very carefully (many only run under the Christmas tree once yearly). If you wanted to play train wreck, it was the low-price trains you did it with.

We saw a lot of these Lionel ten series standard gauge freight cars.
None were in as good a condition as these -- and priced accordingly.

So many low-end trains didn't survive. Those that did usually have condition issues. That makes mint examples of these entry-level trains somewhat desirable. But they're still low-end trains with a limited appeal so that extra value isn't very high.

Low-end Prewar

There were a lot of prewar (before WWII) trains available. We saw O-gauge trains and the larger-scale standard gauge trains from the major toy companies. And they all had one thing in common -- they were all from the lower end of the collecting scale. We saw the bottom-of-the-line sets from Lionel and American Flyer, as well as some others. There were lots of locomotives and rolling stock, but not a lot of accessories (such as stations, signal posts, and lights).

Lionel Junior was created to compete with Marx (see below) at the same
price point. We saw a lot of this at the show.

It was the type of items I'd choose to get rid of if I was downsizing a prewar toy train collection. Remember, most toy collecting is nostalgic -- we want the toys of our youth. Collectors who were youths in the 1930s are in their 80s. If you can only keep some of your collection, you'll want to hold on the best of the best. And what we saw at York was the rest.

All very reasonably priced, and most of it in fair to good condition. Even low-end trains have their fans -- but they're probably holding on the near-mint examples. If you wanted to start a prewar collection, this would have been the show for you -- most every table had some entry-level items.

When Santa couldn't afford Lionel, he went with Marx.

Postwar Marx

Louis Marx and Co. were always the low-price alternatives in the toy train field. They mimicked the offerings of Lionel and American Flyer with the product sold at a fraction of the price. Marx trains have a certain appeal -- they're elaborately lithographed with bright, bold colors and plenty of detail. They're fun toy trains, but they're still cheaply made, and still run third in popularity behind Lionel and American Flyer. You dreamed of Lionel -- but often Marx was what you got instead.

This show we saw a lot of Marx postwar trains. And I think it was also a symptom of downsizing and liquidation. None of it is very valuable, and all of it takes up space. Even if you were a dedicated Marx collector, these were the items you could live without. We saw table after table of the most commonplace engines and freight cars.

Again, if you were just starting out collecting Marx, this would have been a great show. But I wonder. It seems to me that prewar toy trains and postwar Marx are areas of the hobby more people are transitioning out of rather than into. And that makes me wonder how many of the things we saw this year were packed up and taken back home unsold.

Tomorrow: What we didn't see

Lessons from York - What We Didn't See: People

A general interest publication from 1979 -- when things
were much different (and collectors were younger).

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby. 

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

Lifecycle of a hobby (according to me)

As I mentioned in the first part of this series, I believe that the changes in what we saw (or didn't see) at the show all stem from the same cause -- the aging of the membership. I've seen many collectible fields go through basically the same lifecycle.


Stage one: An everyday object has common appeal. Like comic books, baseball cards, carnival glass plates, or teddy bears.

Stage two: Driven by nostalgia, a market develops for those vintage everyday items. Many collectors try to either recover objects they or their families had in their youth or objects they wished they had owned at that time.

Stage three: Manufacturers become aware of this secondary collector's market, and begin to create products for it. Limited edition versions, items marked "collector's item," multiple versions of the same item (collect them all!) are all examples of this trend.

Stage four: The object, either because of fashion and/or technology changes, no longer has an everyday function. It becomes exclusively a collector's item, which further spurs more exotic versions from manufacturers. At this point, the hobby has usually entered the public consciousness and attracts people who are interested in buying and selling these collectibles for the fabulous sums they reportedly command.

Stage five: The original market for the object dries up. This could be due to changing tastes (like Beanie Babies), or just the aging of the collectors as a group. People who collected Shirley Temple memorabilia because they remember seeing her movies as a child in the 1930s were probably born in the 1920s. Relatively few are alive today, and consequently, the demand is quite low. This is especially true for derivative collectibles -- objects made after well after the heyday of the original.

Entering Stage Five

And I think we're seeing the toy train hobby entering stage five. For some time, the meet has used six of the halls on the York Fairgrounds. This time, the smallest of those halls was closed. But the remaining halls weren't crowded. Many rows had empty tables. Some were sold, but not occupied, but a good portion was unsold. And the crowd seemed thinner than it had been even in the fall.

Decline or transition?

So there it is. I think it will be a slow decline, but there's hope. While the halls where people sold old and used trains had declining traffic, the two halls with current manufacturers of trains and model railroading accessories (like scenery and buildings) were booming.

Younger generations may not have grown up with Lionel, but they seem to be interested in operating layouts. And for that, new equipment is much more reliable than vintage trains. The demand for old toy trains may continue to weaken, but the interest in larger scale model (not toy) trains seems to be growing.

Lessons from York: What We Saw, Part 2: Exotica

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of t he state of the hobby. 

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

As I explained in Part 1, shifting demographics seem to be affecting the toy train collecting world. I think it's safe to say that folks in their late 50s and early 60s are the last generations to receive a toy train set as a child. I think that also means they'll be the last generation to be driven by nostalgia to collect toy trains.

Prewar Flyer and More

In addition to seeing an extraordinary amount of American Flyer postwar trains (see Part 1), we also saw an interesting trend in prewar offerings. While Lionel was the dominant force in the toy train market in the 1920s and 1930s, they had plenty of competition. American Flyer was one, as was Ives and Dorfan (to name a few).

American Flyer, 1930. Yes, we saw these at York.

While most prewar collectors are primarily interested in Lionel, some have branched out to include examples of the other manufacturers in their collections. It's important to remember that Lionel still held the majority of the market, so most collectors who are trying to retrieve their childhood trains are seeking Lionel.

Why is that important to remember?

Because when it came to prewar trains, what we saw were an overwhelming amount of non-Lionel products. Ives standard gauge sets were readily available, as were American Flyer standard gauge and O gauge sets and rolling stock. And there was even a good selection of Dorfan rolling stock, too.
(Dorfan was never a very big company. The metal they used for their locomotive body castings had a flaw that caused them to break down and turn to dust after a few years. I'm sure many Dorfan sets were simply discarded after the engine disintegrated. Intact Dorfan locos are extremely rare, their rolling stock a little less so.)

Dorfan train sets. You can find the rolling stock, but not the locomotives.
Most of their cast metal bodies have turned to dust.

I believe the abundance of all of these (relatively) esoteric trains are also tied to the ageing of the collector market. If most collectors are interested in the toys of their youth, then those that fondly remember toys from the 1920s and 1930s would be in their 80s or older. Members of that group are most likely downsizing their households, or selling everything in preparation to moving to a nursing home -- or their heirs are settling their estate.

Ives was a luxury brand. It did not survive the Great Depression. Its name
and assets were purchased jointly by Lionel and American Flyer, who
kept the brand alive until inventory was used up.

Of course, for the latter two scenarios, everything must go. But if you're just downsizing, you'll probably want to keep the core of your collection -- even if it's just a piece or two. But it does mean the more unusual items -- especially those that lie outside your main interest -- can return to the market. So if you're primarily a Lionel collector, then you'll most likely keep your prized Lionel set (or locomotive) and let the American Flyer, Ives, Dorfan, et al, go.

That's my theory, anyway. Next time I'll share what we didn't see -- which also relates to the decline of the hobby.

Lessons from York - What We Saw, Part 1: American Flyer

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby. 

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and more importantly, the reasons behind them.

Age of the aged

Both this post and the follow up (What We Didn't See) are two sides of the same coin. There's been a slow but steady decline in TCA membership, and in toy train collecting in general. In many ways, it parallels trends in other forms of collecting: stamps, coins, dolls, baseball cards, etc. A large part of it, I think, is generational. The generation now in their late middle ages may be the last to have a desire to accumulate physical objects from their childhood. That's not to say that younger individuals aren't interested in collecting things, but it's not the widespread activity it once was.

American Flyer - a bit of background

What does that mean for our little sub-category of collecting? A shift in the market. When it comes to toy trains, Lionel pretty much dominated the market from the 1920s through the 1960s, when interest in toy trains as toys was displaced by other childhood amusements.

Running a close second was American Flyer. Before the Second World War, American Flyer trains competed directly with Lionel -- they both used the same gauges (track width), the same general designs, and marketed to the same demographic.

After the war, there was a major change in both companies. Both began using plastic rather than sheet metal for most of their products. Both moved towards greater realism with their trains. The end of the war brought about a boom in H0 gauge trains. H0 enthusiasts were interested in realistic rolling stock and scenery, considering themselves modelers rather than operators of toy trains.

Lionel stuck with O gauge (twice the size of H0 while AC Gilbert's American Flyer trains moved to S gauge; smaller than O, but bigger than H0. Lionel's trains ran on alternating current and required a middle rail to supply power to the locomotives. Gilbert's S gauge, on the other hand, like H0 used direct current to power its trains. That meant it only needed two rails, which gave it greater realism.

The Rise of American Flyer

There has always been a market for American Flyer trains, and it's always been smaller than the market for Lionel. If you consider that most collectors are trying to replace the toys of their youth, then it makes sense. More parents bought Lionel than Flyer.

While there's always been a good representation of American Flyer trains at the York meet, they were always something one had to seek out. There was that guy in the Red Hall who had a good stock of vintage Flyer, or those three tables in the Blue Hall that had a decent selection.

This time, American Flyer trains were everywhere. Virtually every aisle in every hall had at least one table with American Flyer.

Why?

I think it goes to the decline of the hobby in general. Lionel collectors are aging out of the market. Lionel collectors in their 70s and younger have an interest in postwar Lionel, whereas mostly collectors in their 50s and 60s fondly remember American Flyer. So as the older Lionel collectors age out of the market -- and are not replaced by younger ones -- the balance between Lionel and American Flyer collectors evens out a little bit  It should be interesting to see if that shift continues in future shows.

We also saw a lot of prewar trains, too -- as I'll explain in Part 2.