Lessons from York - a Setting for Sets

Dad and I just returned from the TCA Eastern Division Toy Train Show at York, PA. As always, it was an enjoyable time, and once again we waded through buildings full of toy train and toy train-related items (the latter is a pretty loose relationship, as you'll see). And of course the current producers of toy/model trains, such as Lionel, MTH, Atlas, et al. were there as well.

And as with previous visits, there seemed to be a pattern to what we saw -- although I'm not entirely sure of the reason behind it. Each meet we notice an abundance of a particular item (or type of item). We find them in every hall, sometimes several on the same table. But the next meet, they're nowhere around.

The last meet we attended together, the 1957 Lionel Girl's Train -- normally an exceedingly rare piece -- was everywhere. And so was the modern reproductions of that set. This meet, I didn't see any at all.

This time it was complete sets, with all the boxes. And not just the standard sets one usually sees, but really unusual and rare sets. It's usually pretty easy to track down a Lionel General set from 1965 with the original box, and the Lionel/MPC Coke train is always around (Many people snapped it up when offered in 1974 thinking it would be a highly desirable collector's item. It never happened, and current pricing for a mint-in-the-box set is approaching original list price.)

Only purchase this set if you really like Coca-Cola. It is NOT collectable.

The cheap
No, this time we saw a lot of Marx train sets, ranging from the 1940's through the 1960's. Now there are fairly rare because Marx trains were inexpensive, and unlike Lionel trains which might come out once a year for a Christmas display, were played with until the wheels fell off -- when they were thrown away. And when they were brought home, most Marx sets were taken out of their boxes (which were disposed of) and stored in the toy chest.

Remember, though, that value of any collectable is determined by three criteria: condition, scarcity, and desirability. Most of the Marx sets were in good shape for their age, and certainly rare, but many -- especially the most recent ones -- simply aren't that desirable. It was possible to pick up a complete set for as little as $40, which was actually a fair price.

Why were all of these inexpensive sets hitting the market at the same time? I don't know. My guess is that folks were trimming their collections, and sets take up a lot of room. But that's just a guess.

The very old
We also saw some pre-World War II trains sets in their boxes. This made a good deal of sense to me. Most toy collectors tend to collect items from their childhood -- either replacing long lost toys, or finally getting the awesome toys Santa never came through with. The founding members of the Train Collector's Association grew up in the early 1920's, so for a long time trains from that time period were the most desirable. My dad grew up in the lat 1930's so he's most interested in pre-war and early post-war trains. As for me, I  like the trains from the mid 1960's, which is sort of the twilight of toy trains.

The point is, most of the first generation of collectors have either died or closed up housekeeping. Which dumps their collections back into the market. Now my dad's 80 this year, and while he's still living in own house, many of his generation have downsized. Seeing all the early pre-war sets wasn't surprising. But the scarcity of sets from 1935-1945 was. Those should also be coming back into circulation again.

The very odd
The rules for what can be sold at the meet are very strict. All items must be toy train or toy train-related. Sometimes the relationship's clear -- like Plasticville buildings, which virtually every O-gauge layout from the 1950's on seemed to have. And things like figures, toy cars, model trees, etc. also make sense.

But what about this? We saw no less than three Tootsietoy Fleet sets. There were all complete, in near-perfect condition, in their original set boxes. What't the toy train connect? Tootsietoy cars were used extensively in the 1930's on train layouts. Therefore, anything by Tootsietoy is "train-related" -- including battleships and aircraft carriers, I suppose.

The Tootsietoy aircraft carrier. Very difficult to find without at
least one airplane's wings broken off.

Like Marx trains, Tootsietoys were not very expensive in their day. They were meant to be played with, and they were. The concept of keeping a toy in its original packaging to maintain its value was foreign to kids in the 1930's. The Depression ensured their parents didn't have a lot of money -- so if they were lucky enough to get a toy, you bet they were going to play with it!

The Tootsietoy battleship from the Fleet set. Having all the
turrets and masts intact is a rarity.

I must say, the sets were beautiful to look at. The ships are all cast metal, and it's rare to find any of them intact. The masts are often broken off, as are the wings of the airplanes on the carrier. I can't imagine how these three sets survived, but there they were. In different tables in different halls, but there they were. Why were they there?

I'm not sure. Perhaps the breaking up of the first generation's collections brought these to light. It would be consistent with the older train sets we saw (although better explained if there were more sets from the mid-1930's).

But that's part of the attraction. I know when we go back this fall, we won't see any of these sets. But we will see a lot of something else. But what? We won't know what that is until we get there!

#York

Lessons from York - The Girl's Train revisited

The last post I presented a puzzle from the TCA Eastern Division Toy Train Show at York, PA. An exceedingly rare and valuable set suddenly appears on the market in quantity. The set, Lionel's 1957 Girl's Train, is one of those items that's desirable only because it's so rare.

I speculated that perhaps the core demographic for this set was beginning to age out of the market and downsizing. But there might be more to the story.

The Girl's Train sold very poorly when first offered, and for a long time wasn't particularly desirable. The toy train hobby heavily skews male (and conservative males at that), so a bubblegum pink locomotive didn't top anyone's "must have" list. But then investors entered the hobby; folks interested in buying low and selling high. The value of the Girl's Train climbed.

Strangely enough, demand was such that there were several reissues/homages to this fabled set. Williams created their version with a different engine, and even a passenger train in pastel colors! K-Line also produced a pastel "girl's train." (pictured, left)

None of these impacted the value of the original, though. But Lionel has now reissued the Girl's Train, using the original dies. In book collecting, first editions are everything. But what about train sets?

Some older toy trains are desired for their operation. Not so the Girl's Train. I seriously doubt anyone has put this on their layout and run it. This is trophy item that only maintains its value by minimizing handling (scratches affect condition, y'know).

So what caused the sudden appearance of all of those Girl's Trains at York? Downsizing? Need for cash? Or an anticipation of falling value?

Anyone know of something similar happening in other hobbies? What were the causes there? Your thoughts are welcome!

- Ralph

#York

Lessons from York - A mixed message

Dad and I just returned from our semi-annual trip to York, PA for the Train Collectors Association Eastern Division toy train meet. Now whether you're interested in trains or not, please read on, because I'm asking for your input.

In the past I've tried reading what happened at the meet as an economic indicator. In the fall, there were a lot of abandoned tables, suggesting either money was too tight for vendors to commit, or perhaps had committed but didn't have the funds to travel (the show pulls attendees and vendors primarily from the East Coast, but some travel cross country to attend).

The 1931 Lionel Catalog featured an evergreen trophy item -- the
standard gauge State Set (the passenger train in the foreground). The
remaining items pictured all either merely desirable or highly desirable.

This time virtually all the tables were full and attended. So perhaps a segment of the economy has picked up.What interested me, though -- and where I'm looking for insight -- is what we saw at the show. Although toy trains have been around for more than a century, what shows up on the market tends to run in cycles. At least in this hobby, many try to collect what they fondly remember from their childhood. So as time passes, the desirability (and value) of items rise and fall in a fairly predictable fashion.

At York, though, we saw a lot of something that I consider a trophy item. That is, an object that was unsuccessful in the marketplace initially, which meant very few were ever in circulation. This makes the object extremely rare, which drives up its value. And while a trophy item still isn't desirable on its own merits, its rareness makes it a crown jewel in any collection. For cars, I think of the Edsel. For stamps, the air mail upside down plane. The thing that lets someone say, "Oh yes, I'm a serious collector. Why I even have a [trophy item]!"

In this case, it was the Lionel Girl's Train. (pictured right, from the Toy Metal Museum) That's right. In 1957, Lionel decided to market to girls and offered a train in pastel shades. It bombed. Girls interested in trains wanted the same ones the boys did.

As time passed, the Girl's Train became a trophy item -- something no truly complete collection could be without. Although to my knowledge no one ever wanted one to actually run, even when it was new.

At York this time we saw no less than ten Girl's Train sets for sale, plus several more partial sets and some individual pieces. Why is this coming back on the market now -- and en masse? Collectors of postwar Lionel were the most interested in the Girl's Train, and that population is just reaching retirement age. The next generation is focused on the offerings of the mid- to late sixties.

The value of the set remains quite high. So are people selling to raise cash? Are they trimming their collections in preparation for moving to smaller homes? Or has the bloom finally fallen off this rose?

So my question is this: what's happening with your hobby's trophy items? Are they showing up in the marketplace? Has the perceived desirability of them changed?

I'd be interested in learning if this is something unique to the small world of toy trains, or part of a larger phenomenon.

- Ralph

#York

Lessons from York - Economic indicators?

My dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to York, PA for the Train Collectors Association Eastern Division toy train meets. As I've noted before, it's a pretty big event, and as significant in the field of toy train collecting as, say, CES is to consumer electronics.

This is a hobby that tends to skew old -- most people don't get serious about the hobby until they're in their fifties. So there's a significant portion of collectors that are retired, and living on a fixed income

Dad and I wondered if the economic downturn would impact the hobby -- or at least what we saw at York. Would attendees pull back in their spending? Would some even stop coming? After all, a hobby isn't a necessity, but for many, it's a very important part of their life.

In the spring, we didn't notice much of a change. Attendance was still very high, Lionel, MTH, Atlas and other manufacturers still displayed new products, and older items for sale seemed to be about the same price.

This month, though, things were different. The major manufacturers were all still there, albeit with somewhat restrained product lines. I don't have attendance figures, but the crowds did seem thinner.

But the most obvious change were the dealers. Quite a few halls had empty tables. In some cases, it was clear that the tables had simply not been rented. But many had names on them -- the tables had been rented, but the dealers never showed up. Table signup is finalized months before the meet, so clearly, circumstances changed during that time.

And the effect was similar to the "broken window" syndrome. The vacant tables didn't go unnoticed. We overheard many conversations talking about sluggish sales and general unease about the future. And if we stopped to look at something, more often than not the dealer was right there really giving us the hard sell.

We still had a good time and got some good bargains (like that Lionel MPC boxcar pictured above I brought home). And truth to tell, we also came with less spending money than in years past. And we got the answer to our question. Hobbies can provide a nice diversion, but sometimes reality can't be ignored.

- Ralph

#York