Start the Revolution Without Me

Representative Eric Cantor's not tweeting me anymore. Yesterday it was all about the Republican revolution gone viral! Angry citizens all over the country were going to CallBackCongress.com and signing Cantor's petition, demanding that Speaker Pelosi reconvenes the House so Republicans could vote on crucial legislation to lower gas prices!

For a while, I was getting a Twitter update from Cantor as another 1,000 joined the protest. And then the updates came a little less frequently, and then....

Well. After two days, almost 29,000 folks have signed up. And while there's a small group of bloggers and pundits electronically high-fiving each other, I must say it's nothing like the real revolt of the HD-DVD code protest.

And while 29,000 may seem like a lot of people, let's put it in perspective -- it's a few thousand less than the population of Orange County, Virginia where I live. So not quite the popular revolt it's being billed as.

And that's the strength -- and the weakness -- of the Internet. Everything's quantifiable. Is this a successful campaign? Check the numbers and judge for yourself.

The stats report, you decide.

- Ralph

Day 54 of the WJMA Web Watch.

"Viral," or just a mild infection for Congress?

Can something be viral just because someone says it is? Representative Eric Cantor seems to think so. He's created a website that is as viral as all get-out (according to the service that created the site).

You may recall the dust-up in the House of Representatives when Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared the House adjourned, and the Republicans refused to leave. They were protesting the refusal of the body to vote on offshore drilling, and kept their seats as the lights and microphones were turned off.

Cantor was one of the protesters, and has started an online petition. The goal? To get Pelosi to reconvene Congress (callbackcongress.com).

I'll give Cantor credit for trying to use new media. As the web designers breathlessly write

This really is a case study in how like-minded people who don’t even know they’re working on the same thing can converge to create something bigger than themselves. It really speaks to the nature of viral communications. There was no strategic plan, no unifying message grid, and no conference call to coordinate the whole endeavor. But people with the same passion, who had the tools at their disposal, were able to move into action quickly. Will the House reconvene? It’s not likely, but thanks to new media, more people are aware of the need for energy independence.

And for the past 24 hours I've been getting hourly tweets on Twitter from Cantor as the numbers continued to climb for the petition. 5,000! 6,000! It's just like Mr. Smith Goes to Washington! (an actual tweet Cantor forwarded).

OK, so let's take stock. As of this morning, about 17,000 people have signed the petition, and a little over 2,000 have viewed the accompanying video on YouTube.

Let's compare that to something like, say, the DVD DRM code posting revolt of 2007. Within 24 hours Digg.com was inundated with posts featuring the forbidden code, YouTube videos with songs and signs featuring the code went up, blogs, Flickr accounts, and countless other sites posted the code. Within 24 hours several million individuals had taken action.

The code protest indeed had become viral, spreading rapidly through the Internet, each post triggering new responses that furthered the message.

I'm not sure I'm seeing the same thing here (especially looking at the numbers).

And one more thing -- during the code revolt the Internet was abuzz with conversation back and forth. When Cantor first tweeted me, I looked at the petition, and had a question about the claim that "House Republicans have a plan to lower gas prices, a plan that has the votes to pass." I tweeted back, asking if he cold provide a link so I could read about the plan. No response.

Later on, I asked what was to happen with the petition when they got enough names, and how many names they considered enough. No response.

Hmmm. So has the "Call Congress Back" gone viral? Well, I think if you have to ask, then the answer is obviously not -- or at least not yet.

In the meantime, gas prices here in Orange, Virgina dropped 25 cents over the past three days. Should I credit the vacationing Speaker of the House, or the Republican Representatives sitting in a room with the lights out?

- Ralph

Day 53 of the WJMA Web Watch.

Call Back Congress? I'll take Paris!

This past week we saw two politically-motivated Internet initiatives. One's calling itself a viral movement -- the other just is.

CallBackCongress.com is Rep. Eric Cantor's attempt to start a grassroots revolution to have Speaker Pelosi reconvene Congress so that the Republicans can bring their energy bills to the floor. I've posted about this before. As of today, a little over 30,000 people have signed up since the site was launched a week ago. While the decidedly conservative part of the blogosphere's been talking about this viral campaign, it's garnered almost no interest elsewhere.

On the other hand, there's the video created in response to John McCain's first "Celebrity" campaign ad. Here's the original, for those who came in late.



Interestingly enough, the most effective response didn't come from the Obama camp -- it came from Paris Hilton herself. Here's her reply.

In its first two days, the video was viewed over 6 million times, with no end in sight. It's created enough of a buzz to make it into mainstream media (MSM) reports and commentary.

Now some may say that Hilton's celebrity status account for a large number of views, but if you poke around YouTube, you'll see plenty of Hilton videos (both amateur and professional) that have only a fraction of the views. So it's not just who's in the video.

It's that magic combination of content, plus execution, plus timing. The video parallels the McCain original, and Paris plays her public persona perfectly. But if the video had been released next week, instead of almost immediately, that critical mass would have been missing, and it would not have achieved the success it has.

And while many people toss the term "viral" around, few really seem to understand it. Like a virus, a video, or Internet meme spreads through contact. Each viewer shares it with many more people, each of which shares with multiple people and so on.

In the case of the Cantor petition, most of the 30,000 came in within the first day, and a decreasing number of signers each day after. Hilton's video has been growing exponentially since day one -- and with it making the jump to MSM, it should continue to gain viewers.

30,000 and slowing vs. 6.2 million and growing. One's viral, the other wishes it was.

- Ralph

Day 55 of the WJMA Web Watch.