Lessons from York - What We Saw: Half and Half

Dad and I recently returned from our semi-annual trip to the Train Collectors Association (TCA) Eastern Division toy train meet in York, PA. This is the largest such show in the United States and provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the hobby. 

It can also hint at the current state of collecting in general. As is our tradition, we spent a lot of time discussing what we saw a lot of (and what we didn't) -- and the reasons behind them.

Half Empty or Half Full?

This time around we saw both decline and growth -- in very different ways.

Aging out of the hobby

Toy train collecting (along with many other collecting hobbies) seems to appeal to older generations. Millennials don't seem to share the passion for collecting physical objects. The first generation of train collectors is gone. The second is rapidly aging, and the third may well be the last -- or at least the last in any significant numbers.

This time we saw more empty tables than before. Each one represents a seller who chose not to return -- and not enough interest for a new seller to take over the table. Lionel LCC, and Atlas Model Trains, two of the major manufacturers in the hobby did not attend this time.

Why you shouldn't invest in a hobby

What's in this box? I have no idea. This item has never been removed
from its original packaging. It may still be in mint condition after
all these years, but it probably hasn't increased in value.

What we saw in abundance were high-end collectible locomotives. Lionel, MTH, Weaver (965-2015), and K-Line (1975-2005) issued limited-run finely-detailed O-gauge locomotives for many years. Such locomotives originally had four-figure price tags.

They came in deluxe packages, and for the most part, were stored in them. Many people didn't buy these models to run on layouts. These were investments in the future. Beautifully detailed models remained wrapped in plastic, cradled in styrofoam spacers inside of thick glossy cardboard boxes -- just as they were shipped from the factory.

Buyers knew that the value of these limited-edition models would only go up -- especially if the items remained in mint condition.

But the pool of potential buyers is slowly evaporating -- and so is the demand for these objects. We've always seen some of these collectible locos at the shows. This time I saw tables piled high with them. I think owners were anxious to realize whatever they could before demand dropped even further.

An interesting change in interest

Let's hope the folks interested in vintage H0 are younger than this guy.l

What seemed to be on the rise was interest in smaller scales -- particularly H0. H0 scale (Half 0) is the scale most people are familiar with. This show we saw many vintage pieces on tables in every hall.

Most of the models seem to come from the early 1950s and 60s. There were brass locomotives (from Varney and others). Vintage Athearn "blue box" kits and AHM model kits were plentiful. Unassembled kits commanded higher prices. Ready-to-run Tycho and Bachmann trains were available, too (no broken plastic parts, please).

There was also an event held at the meet to discuss having a separate hall open at the next York show exclusively devoted to H0 sellers.

Extinction or evolution?

When I first attended the York shows with Dad,  H0 trains were a rarity. No longer. Interest in the large scale trains that first ran under Christmas trees seems to be literally dying out. But is there perhaps a newer generation that is interested in what came after -- H0?

I'd like to think so.

The October 2019 meet should be quite interesting.