When market research misses the mark

A colleague told me about a call he recently received. It was from a research company doing some radio research (ironically, he used to work in radio). Unfortunately, he couldn't give them any input -- his age placed him outside the 12-35-year-old demographic they were surveying (but not by much).

Whichever radio station is paying for the research, I'm not sure they're going to get any useful information from it. Why? The group they're trying to reach is self-filtering in two significant ways.

1) Telephone surveys only poll those with land lines. Currently, 30% of 18-24 year-olds and 40% of 25-29 year-olds live in households with only cell phones. Which means a significant part of the demographic will never be reached by the researchers.

2) According to Arbitron, 22% of 12-17 year-olds and 17% of 18-24 year-olds have decreased their radio listening over the past year. Portable players, especially the iPod and iPhone, are primary content providers for this age group.

So this research group will be sampling from the fraction of the demographic that's been left behind by two major trends. What will happen to the station that tries to target this group based on that information?

They should have talked to my friend.

- Ralph

Day 53 of the WJMA Podwatch

NAB: FM + iPod = ROFL

I understand why they asked. But I'm not sure they understand what they're asking.

For those who came in late, at the recent National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) conference, NAB President and CEO David K. Rehr shared a letter he sent to the COO of Apple, Timothy Cook.

"NAB would like to encourage Apple, as a recognized leader in both the mobile phone and portable music player arenas, to include FM radio as a feature in future iPhone and iPod products."

From the NAB's standpoint, this makes perfect sense. iPods currently enjoy about an 80% market share, and iPhones are currently the third most popular in the market -- which makes them as ubiquitous as transistor radios in the early 1960's. Of course, broadcasters would like to be included on these portable devices. As Rehr explains:

"Providing FM broadcast reception capability in mobile phones and portable music players creates multiple benefits for consumers as well as for the broadcasting, music and personal device manufacturing industries."

"I am certain [that FM radio stations] will eagerly support positive indications from Apple on the inclusion of built-in FM radio in future Apple products."

I'm sure they would. The NAB wants this feature added. But what about the consumer? The Zune has an FM receiver built in. So do most Sony MP3 players, and Creative MP3 players, Sandisk MP3 players, et al. (and notice how the FM tuner feature is all but buried in their presentations). And their combined market share is --? Well, combined, it would have to be about 20%.

The same folks that just know HD Radio will save the industry by winning back all of those satellite radio subscribers (sound quality trumps content, don'tcha know) believe that if they can but put an FM receiver in front of all those white ear budded masses, that their audience will return.

Except it won't. If FM radio was a feature in high demand, then the competitor's market shares would be higher. The MP3 player rose to prominence in part because it was a handy replacement for the radio. Why listen to a few songs you like, mixed in with songs you don't and long commercial spot sets when you can enjoy thousands of songs without commercial interruption hand-picked by you for you?

Now it's not to say that having a receiver wouldn't be handy. Some things you can't store on an iPod -- like a football game or a late-breaking news story. But then again, that's what RSS feeds are for, aren't they?

The iPod has moved beyond just music. It's a video player, a podcast aggregator, portable game console and photo album. And with wireless access, the iPod touch, and the iPhone also double as texting consoles , web browsers, and Internet radio receivers.

So where's the advantage of adding an FM receiver? It bulks up the electronics (at a time when iPods are becoming smaller and thinner), it adds to the cost, and it's another way to drains the battery. Stations point out that these devices could use iTunes tagging, but so what? With the iPhone, you can do the same thing with fewer clicks (and Apple doesn't have to share as much of the revenue).

I know why they had to ask, but I suspect only the NAB doesn't know what the answer has to be.

- Ralph

Day 10 of the WJMA Podwatch.

Radio Websites -- Odds and Ends

Our recent series of posts about how to improve a radio station's website (using our local radio station WJMA as a case study) generated some good discussion both on- and offline. Rather than go back and alter the posts, I decided to just do a final roundup of ideas. Thanks to everyone who helped with this!

Don't be shy about your assets
Did you know that Piedmont Communications owns more than just WJMA? You wouldn't unless you went to their company page. On the home page for WJMA should be linked to WLSA, WCVA, WVCV, and WOJL, along with some indication as to their format. (Sorry, I couldn't find links to those other stations -- that's a whole separate issue).

This is important for two reasons: listeners and advertisers.

The iPod revolution has demonstrated that listeners are eclectic. While a person may prefer a particular musical genre, there's usually a few songs from other kinds on their MP3 player as well. A WJMA listener might occasionally go to another station for some variety. Letting them know what other music Piedmont Communications offers just helps keeps that listener within the Piedmont Communications family of stations.

As I said in the last post, a business' website often forms the first impression for potential customers. Current and potential advertisers coming to the WJMA site need to be aware that there are other stations. Don't rely on a sales call to explain it -- the modern business owner (and yes, even little ol' Orange County, Virginia has a growing number of them) will do online research on their own.

Don't forget the video
I talked about always having a digital camera at hand to take pictures to post on the site. Video's great, too. Clips should be short, and make some kind of narrative sense. And if its an entertaining clip, like an office prank, then post it on YouTube and other video sites. The more content you have on the web and the more places you have it ultimately increases traffic to your site.

Link everything
Hotlinks are the key to a successful website. Any URLS in PSAs should be linked, as well as any articles referred to. Cross-linking between pages within a site is extremely helpful. If you're talking about something on another page in another category, don't make the reader go all the way back through the navigation menu to get there -- just link to it. They'll be more likely to visit that page, and more visits = more views for the sponsors on those pages.

No dancing baloney
Keep animation to a minimum -- especially with advertising banners. Also, go easy on the flash animation and other such distractions. While the goal is to monetize the site, ads should be carefully placed so they don't overpower the content (which is why the reader is there). And an excessive amount of banner animation can actually drive people from the site.

Did I miss anything? Add your comment below and let me know.

- Ralph

Tom UnTerrific

Monticello Media announced the arrival of a new radio format to the Charlottesville area -- Tom.

Sometimes people are so deep into a particular subject that they lose touch with how the general public looks at it. And the development of the single-syllable-male-name-radio-format is a perfect example of that.

According to their press release on VARTV.com:

"Tom is a new radio station at 107.5 FM that is unlike anything available in the Charlottesville market because Tom plays Anything. Anytime.

Traditionally music radio stations have limited themselves to playing one particular genre of music such as country, classic rock, oldies, etc. playing the same songs over, and over, and over… Tom is anything but traditional. Tom may play a U2 song followed by the Bee Gees then Matchbox 20, Lou Rawls, Def Leppard, Madonna, Nickleback then Earth, Wind and Fire."

"Anything, anytime?" How about "Some things -- a lot."

Whether it's called Tom, Bob, Sam, Dave or whatever, the intent is to present a greater variety of music, simulating an iPod on shuffle play. The promise is a wild, crazy, unpredictable listening adventure. The reality falls far short of that, primarily because of the short-sightedness of the programmers.

Imagine someone who ate every single meal at McDonald's. Of course they're excited about the addition of the McRib sandwich to the menu. Pork?!? At McDonald's?!?!! It's wild! It's crazy!

Perhaps to someone who's only been exposed to McDonald's fare. To the average person, a rib sandwich at McDonald's is nice, but not earth-shaking. And many who like barbecue (whether North Carolina style or Kansas City style) consider the McRib to be too bland and characterless to be taken seriously.

And the same is true with Tom/Jack/Sam/Bob/Dave. Radio programmers who never strayed far from their top 40 formats looked at what the kids were doing with their iPods and tried to mimic it. Instead of a list of a few hundred songs, they expanded it to a few thousand. How? By combining the tightly regulated playlists of a few closely related formats. So instead of just top 40, Tom/Jack/Sam/Bob/Dave gives you the approved top 40 songs, the approved adult contemporary songs, the approved 70's and 80's oldies, and so on.

Here's the programming philosophy of the Sam format: [italics mine]

"..the format that delivers hit after hit from different eras and different genres, without getting stale or repetitive. Meticulously researched to pinpoint exactly what Adults 25-54 want to hear and aren't sick and tired of, Sam supplies the highest familiarity with the least amount of burn."

My local station, WOLJ, uses Sam from Westwood One, with the slogan "You never know what we'll play next."

Perhaps not, but I know what they won't play next. No classical music. No jazz. No blues. No folk. No bluegrass. And most importantly, no local music.

I've got it all on my iPod, though, and more.

And what about the artists they do play? Any chance of hearing anything other than the same old tunes over and over? They may play "Walking on Sunshine" by Katrina and the Waves, but what about their other hit, "Sun Street?" I've got that on my iPod, too. Ditto with other songs by other "one hit wonders," such as the Ides of March, Thomas Dolby, The Jam, and more.

Tom/Bob/Dave/Sam sounds fresh -- when compared to current radio fare. But placed against the incredible variety of music currently available to almost everyone, it's like putting a McRib sandwich side-by-side with the fare at Arthur Bryant's. It's just plain sad.

And saddest of all the large number of people whose musical tastes have been so stunted by a steady diet of commercial radio that they will indeed be thrilled by this "wild and crazy format."

- Ralph

This Movie is Rated PD

I've posted about Archive.org before -- a treasure trove of public domain material. It's a great source of information and entertainment. And their library of older movies and serials make for great viewing on an iPod (or other digital media player).

This past week I enjoyed a breezy little mystery from 1936 entitled "I'll Name the Murderer." Produced by Puritan Pictures (a poverty row studio), it's a film that for me had a lot of unfulfilled promises. The basic characters are so engaging, it's a shame that Puritan didn't make a series of films with them (as MGM would do with The Thin Man).

Ralph Forbes plays urbane man-about-town Tommy Tilton, gossip columnist for a New York newspaper. His sidekick, girl photographer Smitty (Marion Shilling) is ever ready to lend a hand, and deliver a wisecrack. Tilton's foil is Police Captain "Pop" Flynn (John Cowell), a no-nonsense detective who, of course, goes for the obvious suspect and misses the important clues that Tilton puts together to solve the case.

While not quite on the level of William Powell and Myrna Loy, the byplay between Tilton and Smitty is engaging and witty. Here's how the film introduces Tilton to the audience (note that the budget didn't allow for the producers to actually show the car wreck).



Here's the full cast of characters gathered in Flynn's office -- one of whom murdered the blackmailing nightclub singer Nadia Renee. Ted Benson, Tilton's friend whose gone missing is "Pop" Flynn's candidate, but perhaps it was someone else. Maybe Luigi, the nightclub owner? Valerie Delroy, the dancer? Her partner, Walton?

Note how Tilton takes Flynn off-hand remark and turns it into a plan of action. Although Tilton detects more by intuition than observation and deduction, it gets the job done.




Here's another scene with Tilton and Flynn. Like his relationship with Smitty, it seems as if these two are old friends with some history between them.



I think additional movies about Tilton and Smitty solving murders on Broadway, at society gatherings, and so on with the reluctant help of "Pop" Flynn would have been great. But for some reason, "I'll Name the Murderer" remains the only appearance of these three characters. And that's too bad.

Is "I'll Name..." the greatest film mystery of the 1930's? No. Not by half. But it is a solid 70 minutes of entertainment.

So if you're looking for something to fill your iPod (or other digital media player) with, remember Archive.org. Sure, their public domain selections are old. But darn it, they're just a lot of fun -- and free. Look how much enjoyment I got out of this one!

- Ralph

Stepping outside the teapot

As Ralph so eloquently described in his last post, many of the issues revolving around digital music and how it's sold and distributed can totally escape the notice of otherwise well-informed people. But it's a sign of how much the business of selling music has changed that the news that Amazon would soon start selling non-DRM music files made headlines.

If you'd like a good layman's analysis of the story, check out NPR's story from today's Morning Edition.

How successful will Amazon be in their new undertaking? Hard to predict. The vast majority of legally downloaded music flows through Apple's iTunes Store. They've pioneered the process and have built an attractive web presence that gets the job done pretty easily, even for the non-tech savvy (I'll testify to that after watching my wife happily buy songs for her new iPod last night).

I use Amazon a lot -- it's a convenient way to find books and music online, and they've earned my trust. I imagine I'll give their new music store a chance, but it's a free marketplace -- if it has what I want and it's easy to use, I'll come back. If it doesn't -- well that's the free market.

Do you #1 or #2 when you shop?

While I was writing my last post that expands on my shopping theme, Ken chimed in. Ken's three points are dead on. To review:

Most people buying an MP3 player as a gift are going to consider three things:

1. What the person asked for.
2. What they've heard of.
3. What they can afford.

When #1 is locked up ("Grandma, I want a 4GB iPod nano") then there's no problem (unless #3 is an issue). I was thinking about cases where #1 is either vague or non-existent. If all you know is that your niece wants one of those portable music players, then #2 and #3 will determine your purchase. I'm thinking more of cases where #1 isn't even known.

For example. You have to buy something for your niece, but you have no idea what to get. Say, you've heard about those iPod thingys (#2). Well, you've heard all the kids seem to want one, so OK. Wow -- look at the price (#3)! At your favorite big-box retailer you find a no-name player that the clerk says is just as good as an iPod, and half the price. Another perfect gift! Or is it? That's the problem of a contextural gift.

As to Ken's concerns about iPod's hard drives -- that was a general statement. If you run, jog, mountain climb or do any other physical activity that regularly subjects a player (of any brand) to repeated shocks, it's best to go with one that uses embedded memory. Remember that hard drive players have a little spinning disc with a very small arm that has to track across it like the stereo LP players of olden time. While they're designed to handle occasional jarring, sustained impact could eventually misalign these moving parts and cause problems.

Orange plays again tonight. I think the second time they get flagged, the band should play Brittany Spears' "Oops, I Did It Again." Or maybe not.

- Ralph

Shopping made easy.

Good point about the decision-making process that should go into buying an MP3 player, Ralph. Only problem with that is that I doubt many people do it.

Think about it for a moment. Most people buying an MP3 player as a gift are going to consider three things:

1. What the person asked for.
2. What they've heard of.
3. What they can afford.

Guess who wins? Hint -- it's named after a fruit.

Seriously, iPods are "cool" -- people want them (#1). Everybody's heard of them, even your 78-year old grandmother (#2). They come at a lot of different price points (#3).
Can gift-giving get any easier? That's not an endorsement of iPods -- just a look at reality.

And by the way, what about this statement: "Buy something with a hard drive for someone into running track, and you're giving them a player that will soon be on the fritz." Sounds like a generalization to me -- got some supporting evidence that the HDD in iPods doesn't hold up?

On the subject of memes, I hope Orange County can turn it around. Maybe the band can learn that Chumbawamba song, "I get knocked down, but I get up again..."

On second thought, better not.

Ken

Bruised fruit and busted pods

I personally haven't had any problems with the iTunes 7 program, but I have professionally. The DCD Records podcast I produce is in the new iTunes 7 podcast directory, but all of the programs listings have disappeared!

And unfortunately, iTunes holds podcasters at arm's length when it comes to fixing problems. Its not that difficult to do the original registration, but almost impossible to get any changes made to the feed, and there's no way to "open up the hood" and see what the problem might be with the iTunes program itself.

When you follow Ken's link, make sure you read the article's comments. Taken in conjunction with this posting from Macworld, it seems that a fair amount of the problems seem to be with Windows, or with third-party add-ons. In my case, we did change servers around the same time the new iTunes store launched, so that may have added to the problem.

I'll keep you posted on our postings. I'm not sure the Apple's rotten -- just a little bruised.

- Ralph

There's something rotten in Appleland...

I know Ralph is having a great time with the new iTunes 7 (I haven't upgraded yet, since I'm something of a Luddite). Turns out there may be a few bad apples ruining the barrel. Reports are coming in that everything isn't working as smoothly as it should.

A problem? Long-term -- probably not. Of course, you run into problems when you rely on a single-crop economy -- just ask the Irish.

In whose best interest?

Did you miss it?

There was a second product announcement this week. One for Microsoft's Zune MP3 player. Somehow, it lacked the intensity of interest Apple's announcement generated. While several tech sites had live text-messaged updates of Steve Job's speech as it happened, I didn't see any real coverage of the Zune rollout until after it was over.

Lots of virtual ink will be devoted to this new "iPod killer." As you read, consider this: at the core of the Apple vs. Everyone Else there's been a fundamental philosophical difference. Apple started with what the consumer wanted, and worked around what the media companies demanded. Microsoft, et al started with what the media companies wanted, and worked around what the consumers needed.

Has that changed? I don't think so. Consider the Zune's coolest feature, the ability to share songs with other Zune players wirelessly. If I want you to check out a new band, I can squirt some tracks to your player. That serves the consumer.

However, you have three days to play the tracks, and you can only play them three times before the files are disabled. The media companies' needs trumps the consumer's desires. Think about it – when friends loan you movies or music to check out, do you do so right away, or when you can get to it? In my case I’d just end up with a lot of disabled files cluttering up my Zune.

IMHO, until other manufacturers make the focus the consumer, not the media companies, we'll never have more than an iPod wounder.

- Ralph

Seven Better

It's the day after Apple's big announcement. Take a look around the blogosphere and see how many people get it. The ones that discuss iTunes 7 and iTV do. The ones that focus on the iPod shuffle kind of do. The ones that scratch their heads over the new versions of the iPod nano and video iPod and wonder what the fuss was about, don't.

The key to Apple's extraordinary success has been the simplicity of the interface between the iTunes Music Store, the computer and the iPod. Why did iTunes experience such phenomenal success? While "coolness" may have been a factor, the core reason was functionality. The consumer could see an obvious difference, and the rest is history [see: "Better Best Be Better"].

The big news isn't the players this time (well, except for maybe the iPod shuffle), it’s the software. In a forest of "me, too" competitors, Apple's once again delivered something that the public can see the advantages of. IMHO.

- Ralph

Digital junk food

Ralph's brought up a good point — sometimes "good enough" is OK. But the real story of digital electronics is the vast quantity of goods we have to sample now, not the quality.

Nature abhors a vacuum, and the proliferation of players — be it an iPod in your hand or a QuickTime player on your computer at work — means there needs to be something to fill it. Enter clashtv.com, YouTube and the like. They're free; they give us something to stare at — perfect for our overstimulated brains. And just like eating Lays Potato Chips, you can't stop at just one.

Did I say potato chips? More like a Supersized Double Quarter Pounder Meal — and probably just as good for you.

Ken

Consumer electronics and lo-rez Kung Fu

One of the most fundamental questions about consumer electronics sometimes gets lost in the shuffle: “What are you going to use this for?”

And it’s an important question. Do you need an 80GB MP3 player if you only have 200-300 songs you like? Do you need a surround sound system if you only watch network television? Consumer electronics are continually advancing and offering more features and options, but the bottom line should always be this: does this help me enjoy my electronic entertainment more?

I was thinking of this as I spent the weekend savoring the latest batch of video podcasts from ClashTV.com. Clash TV sends out a bunch of cult films once a month as video podcasts. While fun to watch, they do have their drawbacks (and I’m not just talking about the acting). The movies come in at 64 Kbps, which is extremely low resolution. There’s a lot of chucky pixilation, especially when there’s lots of fast motion.

This month, it’s a selection of Kung Fu films, so image breakup is particularly bad. A 60” flat-screen TV would be useless for viewing these films. It would be virtually impossible to make out anything that was going on. Ditto for that great surround sound system — the soundtracks have serious quality issues, as so much of the sonic information is missing.

On an iPod, though they look fine — not great, but fine. And really, given the quality of these films, that’s OK. The sound through earbuds is tolerable. I can make out the dialog, and that’s about all I want. Once I’ve finished watching these movies, I’ll delete them off my hard drive. This is disposable entertainment for sure.

For image and sound quality, as well as content, these video podcasts from Clash TV are perfect iPod fodder. And it’s a good example of what I’m mean by matching content to device. I’ll not be viewing “Ten Fingers of Death” or “King of the Zombies” on a high-end home-theater system, but as a way to pass some time with my iPod, it can’t be beat.
- Ralph

Two and a half subjects

Since multitasking is au courant, today I divide my post into two and a half subjects to concurrently continue one discussion and begin another.

Subject 1 – Classical Music
Ken's right; the field of classical music covers everything from 10th century Gregorian Chant to the next month's performance of Isang Yun. The important thing to remember is that you can jump in anyplace and make your own connections; just like you would with any other music.

Think about listening to rock, for example. The average person isn't intimidated by the half-century of recorded rock music — especially as a barrier to listening. Do you have to be familiar with Buddy Holly before you buy a 311 song? Is it important to understand the structure of late 1950's doo-wop before going to a Polyphonic Spree concert?

Of course not. You hear a song that you like, and start building from there. The song may lead to investigating other songs by the same group, which lead to other groups with a similar style, and then on into the farther reaches of the subgenre. Classical can be the same way. I started in high school with David Munroe's soundtrack to the Six Wives of Henry VIII, and the Shostakovich 5th Symphony, which we played in band. Shortly after that, I discovered PDQ Bach.

From that, I soon expanded out into the English Renaissance, other tonal 20th Century composers, and the Baroque period. In college I gained a greater appreciation of the other styles and genres, and here I am, some (mumblety-mumble) years later, enjoying the full range of classical music. And all the while continuing to enjoy top 40 and an increasing number of popular music subgenres.

As they say, the best way to learn how to write is to write a lot. And the best way to listen to classical music is just to listen a lot.

Subject 2 – Car Tunes
So this weekend I spent most of the time in the car, driving up and down the Shenandoah Valley for various reasons. We drove across the mountains to Harrisonburg, then to Northern Virginia, and then (the following day) down to Radford. And, as readers of my first post know, not once did I listen to commercial radio. It was the iPod all the way, using a DLO TransPod.

Now the TransPod's a great solution for me most of the time. I can move it from vehicle to vehicle. It plays through the car's radio, so I don't have to fool with any kind of connections. But on long trips, it does have some drawbacks. If I wanted to change menus, I had to pull the iPod out of the dock and use the player's Click Wheel. I couldn't see what was playing (and with over 3300 tunes loaded, sometimes I couldn't place the artist). As I drove in and out of different coverage areas, the frequency I used sometimes got interference or static. And sometimes fidelity was less than ideal.

Ken knows far more about car audio than I do, so my question to him (and our gentle readers) is this.
What kind of setup would you recommend to address some of those issues? And – if there's more than one recommendation — which would be the optimal tradeoff between features gained and simplicity of setup?

Subject 2.5 – Big Words
"Writing Off Reading," an article in Sunday's Washington Post by Michael Skube notes the decline of vocabulary along with voluntary reading among our brightest and best. Hope I didn't lose any one by using the phrase au courant. 8-)
- Ralph